Reflections and Inflections

JACK JAMES - Jan 19, 2026

As we move into the early weeks of 2026, I wanted to take a moment to reconnect, wish you a happy new year, and share a snapshot of where markets stand as another busy year gets underway.

Since our last note in mid-November, markets reminded us that year-ends are rarely quiet. Volatility picked up in the final stretch of 2025, and returns softened, with sentiment around AI cooling and skepticism rising - drawing down markets in a way that echoed the start of the year. But when you zoom out, 2025 still ended on solid footing, supported by strong corporate earnings and an economy that remained surprisingly resilient against a backdrop of cooling inflation and rising global liquidity.



Looking ahead, we’re entering 2026 from a place that feels familiar. Our outlook remains positive, grounded in the belief that earnings strength is the foundation of market performance - and that strength looks poised to continue, fueled by ongoing technological innovation. We continue to see AI as a long-term driver of capital investment (fueling broader GDP growth) and corporate margin expansion (supporting share price growth), even if sentiment wavers from time to time. And, as the chart below shows, markets are off to a strong start this year - an encouraging sign as these themes continue to unfold.


Of course, no year comes without its share of headlines and moments of stress. Like it or not, volatility is a normal part of investing, not a warning sign on its own. Several factors could stir it up in the months ahead, including the upcoming U.S. midterm elections, a noisy geopolitical backdrop, and shifting narratives around AI. But none of these, in our view, change the broader story: we remain optimistic about what lies ahead - and especially about the powerful tailwind driving much of it: AI. While some pundits continue to cast doubt on its role in markets and the economy, it’s a tough case to make given the strong demand for AI services and the rising profits already being generated. While it’s fair to question the pace or sustainability, dismissing the trend entirely may overlook just how significant and durable these shifts are proving to be. Betting against AI in 2026 feels a bit like betting against electricity in the 1920s.

In the next piece, I’ll take a step back from the day-to-day and walk through a few of the broader themes we’re keeping an eye on this year. I don’t usually love making predictions (the market has a way of keeping us humble), but for the sake of perspective (and a little fun) I’ll share some of the themes we believe will shape the year ahead.

- Jack

The Mind of a Chef: What’s Cooking for 2026

At the end of each year, I like to hit pause, reset a bit, and revisit the themes - macro and micro, new and ongoing - that feel most likely to shape the road ahead. Some are clear extensions of trends already in motion. Others are earlier-stage shifts that seem poised to break through.

Where it makes sense, I try to come back to first principles - looking at what’s really changing, what’s just noise, and how it might all tie together.

So, to kick off 2026, I thought it might be fun to share a few of the things I’m watching. Not predictions but rather expectations - a glimpse into what I’m thinking about and how I’m think about the year ahead.

2026 - the year AI starts to show measurable returns:
AI is already creating real impact - but 2026 will be the year those gains become harder to ignore. With Nvidia's next generation Blackwell-powered data centers coming online, we expect more visible results - faster systems, lower costs, and clearer ROI.

We’re also watching for early signs of productivity gains. If AI agents start working alongside knowledge workers at scale, the impact could be very meaningful - more output without equivalent costs. It may not show up all at once, but we think 2026 could mark the beginning of that shift.

2026 - the year power and energy take center stage:
AI doesn’t run on dreams - it runs on electricity. The Kardashev Scale might be a sci-fi framework, but the core idea is here: energy limits progress. As compute demand spikes, the grid becomes a bottleneck. Watch for growing interest in utilities, grid upgrades, and power storage as growth drivers, not just defensive plays.

2026 - the year blockbuster IPOs return:
Capital is coming back to center stage. With AI buildouts ramping - and even talk of space-based data centers - funding needs are rising fast and we expect public markets will reopen in a big way. SpaceX and OpenAI are names to watch - both with reasons to move. We wouldn’t be surprised to see the first trillion-dollar IPO this year, along with several unicorns finally stepping onto the big stage.

2026 - the year physical AI takes a real step forward:
AI is moving off the screen and into the real world. Tesla’s latest Full Self-Driving update, progress in robotics from companies like Figure and Boston Dynamics, and new industrial deployments point to a visible shift. Warehouses, roads, and factory floors could start to look very different this year.

2026 - the year the Fed transition matters more than the first rate cut:
Yes, markets care about rate cuts - but this year, leadership may matter more. With Powell’s term ending, a new Fed Chair could be announced. That pick, and what it signals about future credibility and policy posture, might end up shaping markets far beyond 2026.

2026 - the year AI job disruption becomes a front-page issue:
Layoffs citing AI are picking up. Some reflect broader cost-cutting, but others point to a real shift in how work gets done. As tools like Claude, ChatGPT, and Gemini expand, we expect more automation - role compression, fewer entry-level jobs, and rising pressure to reskill.

The social conversation will heat up - but it won’t be one-sided. For a more optimistic take, Vlad Tenev (CEO of Robinhood) recently gave a TED Talk that challenges the doom-and-gloom narrative and explores how AI might actually make work more meaningful.

2026 - the year financial markets quietly go on-chain:
This isn’t about crypto hype - it’s about market plumbing. Big institutions are modernizing how trades settle, assets are custodied, and liquidity moves. In 2026, we expect to see more of that work come to light: faster settlement, expanded hours, and blockchain quietly taking center stage.

2026 - the year AI starts making real contributions to science:
Beyond chatbots, AI is starting to reshape hard science. From solving decades-old protein puzzles to accelerating drug discovery, we’re seeing breakthroughs in math, biology, and materials science. Expect more tangible, headline-grabbing advances in the months ahead.

If you’re curious what this looks like up close, The Thinking Game - a documentary I watched over the holidays - offers a fascinating look at how DeepMind’s CEO, Demis Hassabis, is pushing AI to solve some of humanity’s toughest scientific problems. Watch it here.

2026 - a continuation of geopolitical fragmentation:
The map keeps shifting. From the Middle East to South America to China’s sphere of influence - even up to renewed strategic interest in Greenland - the world feels more fragmented and more focused on self-reliance. AI is now part of that race. That tension isn’t going away; it’s becoming the backdrop.

2026 - the year “picks and shovels” still matter:
Big breakthroughs still rely on infrastructure. Chips, memory, cooling, power, networking - the companies building the stack remain central to the story. These aren’t the loudest names, but they’re the ones quietly moving everything forward.

2026 - the year policy struggles to keep pace:
Tech’s moving fast. Government policy isn’t. Questions around AI regulation, access, labor, and data sovereignty will keep growing. Governments don’t need all the answers now, but they’ll need to start asking better questions, and soon.

- Jack

So You’re Getting (Re)Married?


Second marriages often come with more than just a fresh start. They bring together children, homes, assets, and very real emotional considerations. I recently wrote an article (here) that explores why blended families require a more thoughtful approach to estate planning - from how a home is owned, to what joint accounts really mean, to why a will alone may not deliver the outcome people expect. At its core, this is about intention, clarity, and making sure your plan reflects real life, not just good paperwork.

If you or someone close to you has remarried or is part of a blended family, much of this will feel familiar. I often see well-intentioned plans quietly miss the mark because ownership structures and beneficiary decisions were never fully aligned. This article highlights the issues people rarely think about until it’s too late, and why addressing them early can help protect both family relationships and long-term peace of mind.

- Alysha

Maximize Your 2026 Savings: TFSA, RRSP & FHSA Contribution Limits and Deadlines

As we get into 2026, we want to remind you of the contribution limits for your Registered Retirement Savings Plan (RRSP), Tax-Free Savings Account (TFSA), and First Home Savings Account (FHSA).

For the 2025 tax year, you can contribute up to 18% of your prior year’s earned income to your RRSP, to a maximum of $32,490. The TFSA contribution limit for 2026 is $7,000. For those eligible for an FHSA, the annual contribution limit remains $8,000, subject to a lifetime maximum of $40,000.

Maximizing contributions across these accounts remains one of the most effective ways to build long-term wealth. RRSPs and FHSAs offer deductible contributions and tax-sheltered growth, while TFSAs provide tax-free growth and withdrawals. The deadline to make RRSP contributions for the 2025 tax year and claim a deduction is March 2, 2026. FHSA contributions can be made anytime during the calendar year, with deductions claimed in the year of contribution or carried forward.

To confirm your personal contribution limits, please refer to your latest Notice of Assessment or log into CRA’s My Account, where your RRSP, TFSA, and FHSA room are reported. As a reminder, TFSA and FHSA room is often overstated early in the year, as prior-year contributions may not yet be fully reflected.

Making contributions earlier in the year allows more of your portfolio to benefit from tax-sheltered growth throughout 2026 and helps keep your long-term plan on track.

Getting Ready for Tax Season: What to Expect

As tax season approaches, many of you are already starting to think about your 2025 tax filings. While the earliest tax slips are still about a month away, this is a good opportunity to begin planning and organizing what you will need.

As part of that process, we wanted to remind you that we will be sharing our handy annual Tax Slip Checklist in early March. This is a personalized summary that outlines the tax slips you can expect to receive based on the holdings and activity in your accounts, helping provide clarity on what documents are coming and when.

The checklist is a useful reference for all clients, whether you plan to file early or closer to the deadline, and helps reduce the risk of missing slips or having to amend a return later.

As always, if you have questions about timing or your personal situation, please feel free to reach out.